A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and monumental referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have analysed the political, financial and societal rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you land with an highly split population where the losing side are not reconciled to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a group called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there could be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or campaigners are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. To illustrate, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the current situation. They authors two essays that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and provoke dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse greater financial contributions or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a negligent official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish matter."
